Presidential Poll, December 2024
Days before the official start of the presidential campaign in Ecuador, Rubikon Intel presents the Political Landscape of Ecuador, December 2024 report. This analysis provides an in-depth view of the country’s political and social context, highlighting a polarized electorate and an electoral scenario where the only certainty seems to be the inevitability of a runoff.
With a rigorous methodology and a margin of error of ±2.16%, the report captures the key dynamics that will shape the 2025 electoral contest.
The study was conducted between December 18 and 20, 2024, using a representative sample of 2,061 Ecuadorians aged 18 and older, gathered through professional panels and digital methods. The results were weighted by age, gender, region, and education level to ensure an accurate reflection of the country’s demographic composition.
Electoral Polarization: The Runoff is Inevitable
The current political landscape reflects a deeply divided electorate. With a technical tie between Daniel Noboa (40.4%) and Luisa González (38.3%), the contest is focused on two main blocs. Although Noboa surpasses the 40% threshold required to win in the first round, he does not achieve the minimum 10-point lead over González, making a runoff election inevitable.
Meanwhile, other candidates fail to gain significant support, with percentages below 2.5%, reinforcing the perception of a clearly bipartisan election.
National Concerns: Security and Economy Dominate the Agenda
83.4% of Ecuadorians identify crime and insecurity as their primary concerns, highlighting a security crisis affecting all sectors of society. Other key issues include:
- Unemployment and lack of opportunities (63.5%)
- Energy crisis and power outages (45.5%)
- Government corruption (35.6%)
Undecided Voters: A Strategic Group in a Tight Election
Initially, 7.2% of respondents identified as undecided, a figure that dropped to 2.5% after follow-up questions. This segment will be crucial in a potential runoff, where vote transfers and the ability to win their support could tip the scales in favor of one of the two main contenders.
Rubikon Intel: Precision in Electoral Analysis
Rubikon Intel has established itself as a leading voice in electoral analysis in Ecuador. In August 2023, it was the only firm to accurately predict the final order of candidates in the first round. Moreover, it projected the sudden rise of Daniel Noboa in the final week, precisely forecasting his eventual victory in the runoff.
Tracking Poll Ecuador August 2023
