A Deep Dive into Mexican Public Opinion
At the crossroads of a politically diverse and complex Mexico, an unprecedented analytical innovation emerges: the ‘Thought Tribes’. Our research, covering nearly 70,000 citizens, not only challenges traditional notions of political segmentation but also unveils an intricately woven fabric of values and beliefs.
This study was no ordinary survey. With a minuscule margin of error of 0.49%, it provided a precise snapshot of the political and cultural landscape. Utilizing our tool, the Digital Oracle, we were able to segment this data and craft specific strategies for each identified tribe. This not only aids campaigns in communicating more effectively but also opened new avenues for understanding and connecting with their electorate.
Mapping of Values and Perspectives
Traditional public opinion research often groups audiences by criteria such as age, gender, income, voting behavior, and region, potentially obscuring the diverse range of human ideologies. To surmount this, our study adopts a more sophisticated multivariate approach that integrates social values, grouping respondents into what we’ve coined ‘Thought Tribes’.
This Deep Dive in Mexico is the first project of its kind in the country. The Thought Tribe methodology has been extensively tested with great success in mobilizing unusual allies around progressive campaigns across Latin America. The term “Thought Tribes” is a technical term describing a specific type of segmentation based on a sophisticated set of applied methodologies, distinct from traditional research techniques commonly referred to as “clusters” or segments.
The word “tribe”, stemming from the Latin term “tribus”, is commonly used in anthropology to refer to a specific human social group. In our study, this term is employed in a broader and more universal sense to describe human groups characterized by shared political values and beliefs.
A year ago, in our baseline study that surveyed about 70,000 cases in Mexico, we identified several unique Thought Tribes. Each tribe reflects a unique set of values, beliefs, and political preferences, providing us with a deeper and more nuanced understanding of Mexican society.
Our methodological approach began with a series of multivariate procedures to identify underlying attitudes, values, and beliefs that explain differences in political opinions among the Mexican population. Subsequently, we applied a statistical classification process, uncovering the existence of distinct Thought Tribes related to values and politics in Mexico.
Obradoristas Núcleo (Core Obradoristas) – 24.7%: This group, predominantly male and over 35 years old, shows a strong affinity for President López Obrador and his policies. They are characterized by their socioeconomic stability and a preference for consuming information through digital media, valuing security and order.
Feligreses Oficialistas (Officialist Parishioners) – 30.1%: Under 55 years old, these followers maintain a favorable view of President López Obrador, albeit with some reservations. Their profile is marked by religiosity and a conservative stance on social issues, with a combined use of traditional media and social networks.
Supervivientes Comunitarios (Community Survivors) – 11%: Mainly from rural or less urbanized areas, this group focuses on material concerns and shows a fluctuating commitment to Morena. They exhibit a more traditional view of leadership and rely on their community and local leaders.
Progresistas Apolíticos (Apolitical Progressives) – 17.5%: Young, predominantly women and highly educated, this group is centered around Mexico City and the Bajío. Despite their disinterest in traditional politics, they are active on social networks and express concerns about environmental, gender, and security issues.
Neoliberales (Neoliberals) – 16.7%: Strongly opposed to President López Obrador, this group tends to support conservative political figures and gets informed through a mix of social networks and the press. Concerned about the economy and security, they look for leaders with experience and coherence.
By employing a values-based approach to segment our Thought Tribes, we can delve deeper into the various layers that make up our social reality, offering a more profound and informed analysis than traditional classifications.
Segmentation Axes of Thought Tribes
In our study of “Thought Tribes” in Mexico, we employed two main axes to classify the population’s attitudes and values: “Popular – Elitist” and “Conformist – Autonomous”. These axes allow us to explore beyond traditional demographic categories, unveiling a richer and more nuanced picture of political and social ideologies.
Horizontal Axis (Popular – Elitist): This axis examines political preferences from the perspective of social and economic inclusion. On one end, we find those with a “Popular” approach, who prioritize policies aimed at the needs of the majority, focusing on the protection and security of the broader groups in society. On the other end, the “Elitist” approach includes values and policies that benefit more privileged sectors, emphasizing market freedom and less state intervention.
Vertical Axis (Conforming – Autonomous): This axis centers on how individuals relate to traditions and authority. The “Conformist” category encompasses those who tend to accept and follow established norms and traditions, showing respect for authority. Conversely, the “Autonomous” category represents individuals who seek to break away from traditional norms, advocating for progressive rights and fostering new ways of thinking and acting.
Utilizing these axes to segment the population into different “Thought Tribes”, we can identify groups with unique patterns of values and beliefs. This classification aids in better understanding how different segments of Mexican society view the world and respond to political and social issues, enabling a deeper and more strategic analysis of public opinion.
Thought Tribe Quadrants
Popular-Conforming: Popular Traditionalists: This quadrant includes those who value policies oriented towards the needs of the majority, but also have a strong respect for established traditions and norms. They can be seen as conservative in their social values but with an inclination towards popular policies that seek to protect and ensure the well-being of the broader layers of society.
Elitist-Conformist: Elitist Conservatives: Here are individuals who prefer policies that favor the more affluent or privileged, while at the same time maintaining a high respect for traditions and established authority. This group tends to support market freedom and neoliberal policies, but within a framework of traditional values and structures.
Popular-Autonomous: Popular Progressives: This quadrant gathers people who support policies oriented to the majority, but differ from traditionalists in their attitude towards norms and authority. They seek to break with traditions, advocating for progressive rights and new ways of thinking. This group could include advocates for inclusive social policies and progressive reforms.
Elitist-Autonomist: Moderate Liberals: Individuals in this quadrant combine a preference for policies that benefit the elite with a progressive attitude towards social norms and authority. They are prone to support economic freedom and the free market, but also promote changes in social norms, defending emerging rights and challenging traditions.
Each quadrant represents a unique combination of attitudes towards social and economic policies and the relationship with traditions and authority. This segmentation allows for a more nuanced understanding of Mexican society and facilitates the formulation of communication and campaign strategies that resonate more effectively with different groups.
Towards a Future of Authentic Connection
The discovery and analysis of ‘Thought Tribes’ in Mexico not only redefines our comprehension of the country’s political and cultural diversity but also provides an invaluable tool for crafting more effective and personalized communication strategies. At Rubikon Intel, we believe that the future of strategic communication lies in the ability to understand and respect the complexity of the societies we operate in. Our study on Thought Tribes is a step forward towards this future, offering politicians, strategists, and communicators the chance to connect more authentically and effectively with the Mexican electorate.
By leveraging advanced data analysis and a deep understanding of sociocultural dynamics, Rubikon Intel positions itself at the forefront of innovation in electoral analysis and strategic communication. This study is not only a testament to our commitment to excellence and innovation but also an invitation to rethink how we approach the complexities of our societies. We are ready to lead the way, exploring new frontiers in political analysis and offering solutions that not only inform but also inspire and mobilize.
